Forecasting
Two ways to see your future
Yield Clarity offers a deterministic expected-path forecast and a probabilistic range of outcomes. Together they give you a clearer picture than either could alone.
Expected path
A single projection based on your assumptions
The expected-path forecast plots your portfolio growth month by month using the return assumption, contributions and expenses you've selected. It produces one projected FI date.
- •Planning return — portfolio-derived or manual
- •Contribution phases with start and end dates
- •Inflation assumption
- •Retirement income target and withdrawal rate
- •Withdrawal strategy selection
Every assumption is shown and adjustable. The result is transparent — not a black box.
Projected FI date
November 2034
8 years, 3 months from now
Return
6.2% p.a.
Inflation
2.5%
FI target
£840,000
Withdrawal
4.0%
Probability by target
49%
ModerateSustainability
99%
15-year horizon
Likely FI window
January 2032 — July 2038
Sequence risk
Poor early returns increase depletion probability from 1% to 8%
Range & Probability
Planning for uncertainty
Markets don't follow a straight line. Yield Clarity runs 10,000 simulated market paths to show you a range of possible outcomes and the probability of reaching your target.
- •Probability of reaching FI by your target date
- •Likely FI window (most outcomes land here)
- •Retirement sustainability over your chosen horizon
- •Sequence-of-returns risk analysis
- •Confidence ranges: 50% and 80% outcome bands